Decoded- The Kinship Rule’s Fast Start, and the Slow Shift That Follows
By The Child Welfare Wonk Team
Two years after the Children’s Bureau finalized the Kinship Rule, the takeup has been fast – for government – but the data is not yet showing big changes for kids and families.
In September 2023, to support children staying with family whenever possible, the Children’s Bureau finalized a “Kinship” rule that makes it easier for kin to get licensed and requires they receive equal pay for caring for relative children in foster care.
The rule allows states to remove any non-safety requirements that may have been barriers to relatives caring for children, like requiring a specific home size. Research tells us children do better with their families.
This rule makes it easier to keep them with people they know and love.
Two years after finalization, a large share of states and tribes have approved plans in place, several more are under federal review, and nearly all remaining jurisdictions have signaled they intend to move forward.
Moving this many jurisdictions toward a new licensing structure in just two years is unusually quick in federal child welfare, where implementation typically unfolds unevenly and over much longer timelines.
Both the pace and the breadth of policy change are notable, but the implementation curve is real.
We now have the FY 2024 data on kin licensure, with the important caveat that these are early data, with many states not yet at the point of full years of data to share.
This isn’t about a comprehensive benchmark or stress test of the policy. Rather, it’s a lens through which to see what the early parts of the implementation curve look like.
So far, states are not reporting equally rapid change in licensed kin placements.
This early snapshot is an important hinge point from which we can continue to monitor whether the breadth of commitment translates into measurable change.
It also exemplifies the deeper challenge of federal reform implementation; the implementation curve is a game of inches that requires lots of last mile work beyond the headlines.
What the Kinship Rule Actually Changes
The Kinship Rule makes two critical changes to how states can license and support relatives.
First, it gives states and tribes a new pathway for licensing or approving kin using a separate set of standards, so long as those standards still meet federal safety requirements.
Second, once kin are licensed or approved under those standards, agencies must provide payment parity – the same foster care maintenance rate a non-relative foster parent would receive for the same child.
This is significant; while policy rhetoric long ago shifted to emphasize prioritizing kin, the funding flow has long lagged. The kin rule offers tools to shift that.
Where Implementation Stands
The federal theory of change is clear:
Remove non-safety barriers + pay kin equally → more relatives become fully licensed → more children live with family -> children in foster care show improved outcomes.
According to the most recent national mapping of kin-specific licensing implementation:
15 states and 6 tribes have approved plans,
Three states have plans under federal review, and
Most remaining jurisdictions either have implementation plans in development or are actively exploring implementation.
This breadth of adoption matters: states are restructuring their licensing systems in response to the rule.
What AFCARS Shows So Far
Policy uptake is widespread — but the early data is sending a more complicated signal. Two years in, AFCARS shows only marginal increases in licensed kin placements so far.
With only FY23 and FY24 data available, and quality still stabilizing, a few patterns stand out:
The national share of children in licensed kin placements increased just 1 percentage point (21% → 22%).
23 states increased their share of licensed kin placements.
10 states showed no change.
15 states showed a decline — including four of the 15 states that have committed to implementing the rule, meaning they are in progress of making an implementation plan.
This isn’t states slower to implement masking a trend among the first movers.
States with approved plans have an average of just under a one point shift. A variety of factors could be at play here, and we look forward to digging in further to explore.
The split tells us something important:
Structural permission to license kin differently won’t shift practice overnight.
Early Movers vs. Stalled Systems
The divergence across states is the story.
A few jurisdictions show what’s possible under the new rule:
Michigan (first approved): +10 points (15% → 25%)
Connecticut (not yet approved): +6 points (37% → 43%)
But others moved in the opposite direction:
Indiana (committed but not approved): –8 points (28% → 20%)
This spread highlights the operational reality: Changing the rule is one thing; changing the licensing pipeline is another.
The spread of shifts in licensure data also shows that quick progress appears to be possible.
Jurisdictions that entered the rule with existing kin-first strategies moved quickly.
Others are still untangling statutory constraints, approval timelines, and local practice cultures.
This points to a deeper reality in state implementation of federal policy reforms: readiness to execute on the last mile of policy delivery is what separates nominal policy change from substantive shifts.
What Decision Makers Need to Know
1. Broad adoption is a real achievement — but it hides uneven readiness.
Experts view this state of play as a net positive, given the number of approved plans in just two years and the progress or intentions of nearly all the rest. And real barriers remain.
Many states cannot implement the rule without making legislative changes to allow for separate licensure standards for kin. Those are the real rate limits, not just the topline reform.
Illinois, for example, passed the Kinship in Demand (KIND) Act in February of 2025 providing their Department of Children of Family Services the authority to implement separate standards for kin and making pay parity with non-relative foster homes explicit.
That statutory authority matters — without it, administrative changes stall.
2. Michigan’s early gains weren’t just about the rule — they were built on prior capacity.
Michigan’s standout rate of change builds on previous success.
The rate of children placed with relatives increased by 35% from 2019 to 2023 with the help of new kin-first strategies (i.e., expanded identification efforts, elevating youth and family voice, early outreach and support) and dedicated upstream efforts like strengthening access to high quality community-based behavioral health services.
The rule created a clearer pathway; Michigan could leverage it because they already had the scaffolding.
Movement requires readiness development or learning from the first movers.
3. Systems without that scaffolding will move more slowly.
States that have signaled intent but show flat or declining licensed-kin numbers are often managing:
statutory constraints;
long-standing licensing bottlenecks;
lack of kin-specific training, staffing, or casework models.
This isn’t failure– it’s the implementation curve.
The rule removes structural barriers, but the pipeline still has to grow jurisdiction by jurisdiction.
While the big policy change is what drives celebrations, it’s the grinding work of the last mile delivery logistics that determines if it translates into impact or turns into a talking point.
Closing
The Kinship Rule removes long-standing structural barriers and gives states a clearer path to license and support relatives.
Two years in, jurisdictions have largely embraced that framework — but the numbers show how much work remains between policy permission and practice change.
The next phase won’t be defined by how many states have plans on file. It will be defined by whether children actually experience the difference: more relatives licensed, more stability, and fewer financial and procedural hurdles for families already stepping in.
That is the implementation curve to watch.