Shaping the Next Big Child Welfare Bill

How sharp first movers are already setting the frame...

Federal Focus

Shaping the Next Big Child Welfare Bill

Writing the next child welfare bill instead of reacting to it.

By Doug Steiger, MPP, Child Welfare Wonk Senior Contributor

Don’t hold your breath for a major child welfare bill this Congress, but start prepping for the next Congress…now.

Dysfunction, polarization, the incentives of social media, and reconciliation brinkmanship have replaced regular legislating.

Child welfare bills have usually been bipartisan efforts and under the political radar – exactly the type of legislation that is an endangered species.

Last year’s reauthorization of IV-B was an achievement to be celebrated for overcoming the current environment.

Is it time to give up working to improve federal child welfare law? No, it just makes the task longer and harder.

But now is the time to shape what the next bill will be, perhaps in the next Congress in 2027-2028.

The Near-Term Odds: Slim to None

Why are the odds against a child welfare bill happening soon so low? For one, the massive reconciliation bill took a tremendous effort to pass, displacing regular legislative work.

In particular, it left the annual appropriations process behind schedule – which now risks collapse1 as the Trump Administration stress tests the legal boundaries on government spending.

What about next year? A bit more likely, but bipartisan legislating becomes difficult in election years when both sides become focused on scoring partisan wins.

Unless the child welfare bill is seen as a “must do”, it will be virtually impossible to move given this dynamic.

Perhaps the only viable way it becomes a “must do” at this point is if the Trump Administration demands it.

No bipartisan deal is waiting in the wings — which makes it the moment to start building one.

What’s Ripening for Reform

Family First turns 10 (!) in 2028 and the Chafee program is also due for an update. Both are natural policy targets.

If Democrats take control of at least one chamber of Congress, it increases the odds of a bipartisan bill moving, either on its own or as part of a larger package, as Family First finally did.

Now is the time for state and local leaders, policy experts, funders, and advocates to set policy priorities, educate Washington on what matters, and recruit champions in both parties.

The new Administration will also shape the field. Once political appointees with child welfare experience are in place at ACF, they will bring their own agenda.

As a result, engaging the Administration proactively should be part of the strategy, since they can take some steps without Congress or be helpful in influencing Congress.

How to Build Momentum

Lining up sufficient support for a child welfare bill often involves weaving multiple issues together to craft a coalition, rather than relying on one champion to single-handedly propel a bill through Congress.

And if such a coalition isn’t bipartisan, success becomes much more difficult.

The IV-B reauthorization is a reminder that anniversaries can give legislation momentum, especially when paired with a narrative of continued success and inevitable momentum.

All these ingredients can provide the critical mass of proposals that come together as a coherent comprehensive bill.

What Works to Move the Needle

Specific things that could start to move the needle:

• Picking winning issues; those that invite both bipartisan interest

• Finding the sweet spot between high leverage and structural change for effective policy:

  • Shifting dollars, creating accountability, or changing the balance of power

• Highlighting what's actually working and why, to make the case for scaling it

• Cultivate bipartisan champions

  • This often begins with low-stakes engagement, with a long lead-time

• Keep educating staff – given high turnover, never assume they know the issues

• Bring Members closer to the work through site visits and bipartisan staff trips to local programs, etc

• Notch small victories that build the record, including by:

  • Appropriations or committee report language

  • Topical hearings

  • Oversight and GAO requests.

Big child welfare reforms – and we know those are needed – do not happen overnight in Washington.

They are usually the product of years of groundwork, both within the community of advocates and administrators as well as with the political actors in Congress and the executive branch.

What Decision Makers Need to Know

• State, Local, and Tribal Government: Success begets success; lock in reforms at home, document results, and bring Members and staff to see them firsthand.

• Funders: Find what works; invest in pilots, data, and coalition infrastructure that can be lifted into federal policy when the window opens.

• Advocates: Focus on impact; set clear priorities, cultivate bipartisan champions, build cross-cutting consensus, and bank incremental wins that build momentum.

• Hill Staff & Members: Learn the lay of the land; use this time to learn the issues, spot potential political or coalitional conflict early, surface bipartisan areas of agreement, and build the record that future legislation will rest on.

Bringing it All Together

There will be another important child welfare bill…someday. It could be next year – though there are no signs of it yet – or it could come in the next Congress.

People with ideas for change and the passion to work for it should be engaging now to shape the discussion.

That’s what will build the stage that everyone involved will perform upon when the legislative process becomes serious.

The best legislative strategies look inevitable; the best strategists know they end up that way through early and sustained effort.